It’s fair to say Kenya’s predominantly informal sector is currently under shock, due to the impact of the rona and the measures and mitigations that have followed: quarantines, social distancing rules, curfews, restrictions and possibly lockdowns.
Mpesa’s inextricable link with Kenya’s biashara economy fully exposes it to this shock. Newly appointed CEO Peter Ndegwa of Safaricom and M-Pesa admitted to Reuters , that the mobile payments darling of Africa and East Africa is fully dependent on the economy of Kenya.
It has only been a month of subdued biashara, but the new Mpesa CEO already expects a 7.3% decline in Mpesa revenues of upto $52 million this quarter.
Unless a vaccine or cure can be found, and a resumption to the biashara economic levels to Pre-Covid19, Mpesa revenues are likely to be worse than this first quarter for the forseeable future.
Here is why